Charlton 1-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Rotherham in League One, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 2W 2D 4L from 8 League One appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rotherham's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 1L across 6 road games this term (2.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Rotherham are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Rotherham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 67% versus Rotherham 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 67% | Rotherham 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.90 xG and Rotherham 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.035 / defence 1.440 | Rotherham attack 0.992 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.346. Rotherham's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Charlton games / 15 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 17% | Draw 22% | Rotherham 61%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Rotherham 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Rotherham (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rotherham at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 50% | Rotherham 17% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 17% | Draw 22% | Rotherham 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Charlton 0.90 / Rotherham 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.035 / def 1.440 | Rotherham attack 0.992 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Rotherham xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Rotherham kick off?
Charlton vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Rotherham?
Charlton 1 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is Charlton vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Rotherham part of?
Charlton vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 17% chance of winning, Rotherham a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charlton and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Rotherham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Rotherham in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Rotherham (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.03x the league average against Rotherham's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.99x) against Charlton's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
17%
5.88
22%
4.62
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.82
1.92
Rotherham xG
5.88
17%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
2%
40.20
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Charlton and 1.92 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton's recent record stands at 4W 3D 8L from 15 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 3L across 15 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rotherham by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.87 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rotherham in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.17 PPG; Rotherham away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Charlton or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rotherham in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rotherham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Rotherham 4-2 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 67%, Rotherham 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Charlton) and 17% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rotherham in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Charlton's recent matches and 17% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Charlton's recent games and 17% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Rotherham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Rotherham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Rotherham finished level at 1-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.90 xG and Rotherham 1.92 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rotherham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.03 / defence 1.44 against Rotherham attack 0.99 / defence 0.74, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 17% | Draw 22% | Rotherham 61%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 67%, Rotherham 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Rotherham's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.