Charlton 0-2 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Bolton travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 October 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bolton — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bolton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.50 PPG versus Bolton's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bolton, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Charlton.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Bolton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bolton have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bolton trading profile (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 63% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 54% | Bolton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.77 xG and Bolton 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.454 / defence 1.124 | Bolton attack 1.353 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.102. Charlton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bolton have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Charlton games / 59 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 41% | Draw 22% | Bolton 37%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Bolton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 80% | Bolton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 41% | Draw 22% | Bolton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Charlton 1.77 / Bolton 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.454 / def 1.124 | Bolton attack 1.353 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Charlton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Bolton xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bolton kick off?
Charlton vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Charlton 0 - 2 Bolton.
Where is Charlton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bolton part of?
Charlton vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 41% chance of winning, Bolton a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Charlton and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
Record (4 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 4W.
What form are Charlton and Bolton in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.45) and Bolton's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
41%
2.45
22%
4.46
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.45
1.68
Bolton xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
6%
16.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Charlton and 1.68 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 21W 17D 21L from 59 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 15L across 59 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.36 PPG, Bolton on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 12W 7D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.42 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bolton in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 21W 17D 21L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Bolton have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bolton away?
Charlton's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.54 PPG; Bolton away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Charlton or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bolton in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Bolton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Bolton have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 71%, Bolton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Charlton) and 43% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 36%; Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Charlton's games and 46% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Charlton's recent games and 43% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bolton tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bolton in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Charlton 0-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.77 xG and Bolton 1.68 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.45 / defence 1.12 against Bolton attack 1.35 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 41% | Draw 22% | Bolton 37%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 54%, Bolton 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bolton's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.36 PPG, Bolton 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.