Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Peterborough at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambridge United face Peterborough.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cambridge United and Peterborough meet at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cambridge United have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cambridge United's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Peterborough (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Cambridge United, 2 for Peterborough and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Cambridge United 0–5 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 44% versus Peterborough 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 45% | Peterborough 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.754 / defence 1.007 | Peterborough attack 1.174 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.214. Cambridge United's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 78 games and Peterborough's last 78.

Result probabilities: Cambridge United 32% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 3.16 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 30% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 80% (last 10 away games).

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