Burton Albion 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 40 as Burton Albion welcome Port Vale to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Port Vale — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Port Vale have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Burton Albion have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Burton Albion, 1 for Port Vale and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 47% versus Port Vale 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 46% | Port Vale 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Port Vale 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.704 / defence 1.038 | Port Vale attack 0.670 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.191. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 84 Burton Albion games / 83 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Port Vale 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 30% | Port Vale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 44% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Burton Albion 1.18 / Port Vale 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.704 / def 1.038 | Port Vale attack 0.670 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Port Vale xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Port Vale kick off?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Burton Albion vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Port Vale part of?
Burton Albion vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 44% chance of winning, Port Vale a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burton Albion and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Port Vale (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.33
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.01
0.83
Port Vale xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.83 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 25W 20D 38L from 83 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 43L across 83 games — 0.99 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.14 PPG, Port Vale on 0.99. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 15W 11D 15L from 41 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 8W 11D 22L across 41 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 38L in their last 83 games (1.14 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 21W 19D 43L in their last 83 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Port Vale away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.37 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 44%, Port Vale 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Burton Albion) and 56% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 37% of games; Port Vale in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 49% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Burton Albion's recent games and 56% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Port Vale tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Port Vale 0.83 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.70 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.67 / defence 1.27, drawn from 84/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 44% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 26%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 46%, Port Vale 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port Vale's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.14 PPG, Port Vale 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.