Burton Albion 3-2 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Burton Albion are significantly better at Pirelli Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town's overall League One record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fleetwood Town away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burton Albion lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burton Albion 60% and Fleetwood Town 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Fleetwood Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.76 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.980 / defence 1.284 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.783 / defence 1.566. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.238. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.566 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Burton Albion games / 35 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 48% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Fleetwood Town 3.85. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 40% | Fleetwood Town 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 48% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Burton Albion 1.76 / Fleetwood Town 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.980 / def 1.284 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.783 / def 1.566 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fleetwood Town xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion 3 - 2 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 48% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.98) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.78x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
48%
2.06
25%
3.94
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
3.00
1.25
Fleetwood Town xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
5%
22.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.25 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 8D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 0.94 PPG from 35 outings (7W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.94 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 7W 4D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.37 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Fleetwood Town in 63%.
Last 35 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 12D 16L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.47 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fleetwood Town won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
1
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 59%, Fleetwood Town 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Burton Albion) and 53% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Burton Albion's games and 65% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Burton Albion's recent games and 53% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Fleetwood Town 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Fleetwood Town 3-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.76 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.25 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.57, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 48% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 26%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Fleetwood Town 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.09 PPG, Fleetwood Town 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.