Bolton 1-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Peterborough make the trip to University of Bolton Stadium to face Bolton in League One, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bolton (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at University of Bolton Stadium, Bolton have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Peterborough have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bolton. A 0.50 PPG lead over Peterborough (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bolton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Peterborough in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 44% versus Peterborough 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 48% | Peterborough 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 2.02 xG and Peterborough 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.216 / defence 0.870 | Peterborough attack 0.927 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.139. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Bolton games / 8 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 62% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 16%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 60% | Peterborough 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 62% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Bolton 2.02 / Peterborough 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.216 / def 0.870 | Peterborough attack 0.927 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bolton (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Peterborough xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Peterborough kick off?
Bolton vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Peterborough?
Bolton 1 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Bolton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Peterborough part of?
Bolton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 62% chance of winning, Peterborough a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bolton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bolton and Peterborough in?
Bolton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bolton's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.93x) against Bolton's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.50
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.94
0.92
Peterborough xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
48.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Bolton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Bolton and 0.92 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 25W 12D 17L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 13W 10D 31L from 54 games, 0.91 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bolton are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (15W 7D 5L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 20L from 27 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bolton are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.06 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 25W 12D 17L in their last 54 games (1.61 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 13W 10D 31L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Peterborough away?
Bolton's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.93 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 0-5 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bolton
3
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Peterborough?
From 8 meetings on record, Bolton have won 4, Peterborough have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Peterborough?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 48%, Peterborough 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Bolton and 67% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Peterborough in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bolton's recent matches and 44% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Bolton's matches and 67% of Peterborough's.
Do Bolton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Peterborough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Peterborough 1-0 at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.02 xG and Peterborough 0.92 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Peterborough landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Peterborough attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 62% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 16%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 48%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Peterborough's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.