AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.71 PPG across 7 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.14 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 1W 2D 0L from 3 League One appearances (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games (1.83 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.67. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.71 for AFC Wimbledon, 1.83 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 83% versus Plymouth 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 67% | Plymouth 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.49 xG and Plymouth 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.278 / defence 1.304 | Plymouth attack 0.911 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.080. AFC Wimbledon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 7 AFC Wimbledon games / 6 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 33%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 100% | Plymouth 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.49 / Plymouth 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.278 / def 1.304 | Plymouth attack 0.911 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Plymouth xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance of winning, Plymouth a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.91x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
42%
2.38
25%
3.96
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.77
1.28
Plymouth xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.28 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.83 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.50 scored and 0.67 conceded. AFC Wimbledon's scoring rate against Plymouth's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AFC Wimbledon have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plymouth in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Have AFC Wimbledon or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Plymouth in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 83%, Plymouth 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (AFC Wimbledon) and 33% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of AFC Wimbledon's games and 33% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 33% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Plymouth tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.49 xG and Plymouth 1.28 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.28 / defence 1.30 against Plymouth attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 33%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 67%, Plymouth 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.50 PPG, Plymouth 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.