AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cardiff make the trip to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to face AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cardiff have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cardiff have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AFC Wimbledon. A 0.80 PPG lead over Cardiff (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 31% versus Cardiff 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Wimbledon 31% | Cardiff 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Cardiff 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.966 / defence 0.975 | Cardiff attack 0.711 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.087. Data: 3 AFC Wimbledon games / 3 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 20%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Cardiff 5.00. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 20% | Cardiff 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.32 / Cardiff 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.966 / def 0.975 | Cardiff attack 0.711 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Cardiff xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 49% chance of winning, Cardiff a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Cardiff (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.97) and Cardiff's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.71x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.23
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.07
0.75
Cardiff xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.75 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 23W 13D 13L from 49 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 20L across 49 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AFC Wimbledon by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cardiff heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 14W 5D 5L from 24 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 2W 12D 10L across 24 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.08 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 11W 18D 20L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Cardiff away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.96 PPG; Cardiff away: 0.75 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Cardiff in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Cardiff have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Cardiff 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 21%, Cardiff 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AFC Wimbledon) and 54% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Cardiff in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 67% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 54% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Cardiff tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.32 xG and Cardiff 0.75 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Cardiff attack 0.71 / defence 0.98, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 49% | Draw 31% | Cardiff 20%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 31%, Cardiff 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Cardiff winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.