Accrington ST 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Sunderland in League One, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's home record at Wham Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland's overall League One record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sunderland are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Accrington ST have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sunderland in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Accrington ST lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 52% versus Sunderland 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 52% | Sunderland 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.70 xG and Sunderland 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.065 / defence 1.204 | Sunderland attack 1.099 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.286. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Accrington ST games / 26 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 39% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 38%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Sunderland 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 70% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 39% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Accrington ST 1.70 / Sunderland 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.065 / def 1.204 | Sunderland attack 1.099 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sunderland xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Sunderland kick off?
Accrington ST vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Sunderland?
Accrington ST 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Accrington ST vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Sunderland part of?
Accrington ST vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 39% chance of winning, Sunderland a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Accrington ST and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Sunderland in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.10x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
39%
2.59
23%
4.35
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.40
1.70
Sunderland xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.70 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 5D 10L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (14W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 7W 2D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.96 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 14W 5D 6L in their last 25 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Sunderland away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.77 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sunderland in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Accrington ST 1-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 62%, Sunderland 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Accrington ST and 77% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Accrington ST's games and 62% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Accrington ST's matches and 77% of Sunderland's.
Do Accrington ST and Sunderland tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.70 xG and Sunderland 1.70 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.06 / defence 1.20 against Sunderland attack 1.10 / defence 1.41, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 39% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 38%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 52%, Sunderland 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.