Accrington ST 0-0 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Accrington ST and Exeter City meet at Wham Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Accrington ST's overall League One record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Accrington ST have posted 5W 4D 1L at Wham Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Exeter City have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Exeter City have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Exeter City have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Exeter City — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 58% versus Exeter City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 58% | Exeter City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 2.10 xG and Exeter City 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.335 / defence 1.458 | Exeter City attack 0.873 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.075. Accrington ST carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Accrington ST games / 5 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 54% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 24%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Exeter City 4.17. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 80% | Exeter City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 54% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Accrington ST 2.10 / Exeter City 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.335 / def 1.458 | Exeter City attack 0.873 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Exeter City xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Exeter City kick off?
Accrington ST vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Accrington ST 0 - 0 Exeter City.
Where is Accrington ST vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Exeter City part of?
Accrington ST vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 54% chance of winning, Exeter City a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Accrington ST and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Exeter City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Accrington ST and Exeter City in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Exeter City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (0.87x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 50/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
54%
1.87
22%
4.49
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.46
1.37
Exeter City xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
3%
33.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.37 for Exeter City, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 13D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Exeter City sit at 1.80 PPG from 50 outings (25W 15D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Exeter City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Exeter City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 8D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Exeter City have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (9W 10D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.48 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Early Season
Exeter City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 25W 15D 10L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Exeter City away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.76 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Exeter City in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
1
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Exeter City?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Exeter City have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Exeter City 5-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Exeter City?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 72%, Exeter City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Accrington ST) and 40% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Exeter City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Exeter City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Accrington ST's games and 56% of Exeter City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Accrington ST's recent games and 40% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Exeter City tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Accrington ST's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Accrington ST and Exeter City drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 2.10 xG and Exeter City 1.37 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.33 / defence 1.46 against Exeter City attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 50/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 54% | Draw 22% | Exeter City 24%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 58%, Exeter City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Exeter City's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.