Accrington ST 2-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Charlton travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Accrington ST are significantly better at Wham Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charlton away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Accrington ST 1.10 PPG, Charlton 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Accrington ST register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Accrington ST, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Accrington ST trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Charlton trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 51% versus Charlton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 51% | Charlton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.74 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.265 / defence 1.178 | Charlton attack 0.731 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.238. Accrington ST carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Accrington ST games / 35 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 52% | Draw 26% | Charlton 22%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 4.55. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 60% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 52% | Draw 26% | Charlton 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Accrington ST 1.74 / Charlton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.265 / def 1.178 | Charlton attack 0.731 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Charlton xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Charlton kick off?
Accrington ST vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Charlton?
Accrington ST 2 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Accrington ST vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Charlton part of?
Accrington ST vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 52% chance of winning, Charlton a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Accrington ST and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Accrington ST and Charlton in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (1.26) and Charlton's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.89
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.80
1.06
Charlton xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
25.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.06 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 7D 15L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (11W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.31 PPG, Charlton on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 35 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Charlton in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Charlton have gone 11W 7D 17L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Charlton away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.82 PPG; Charlton away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
2
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Charlton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Charlton 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Charlton?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Accrington ST at 65%, Charlton at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Accrington ST) and 59% (Charlton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Accrington ST's games and 71% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Accrington ST's matches and 59% of Charlton's.
Do Accrington ST and Charlton tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Charlton in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Accrington ST edge out Charlton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Charlton 2-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.74 xG and Charlton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.26 / defence 1.18 against Charlton attack 0.73 / defence 1.20, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 52% | Draw 26% | Charlton 22%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.31 PPG, Charlton 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.