Accrington ST 4-4 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burton Albion (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Accrington ST. A 0.90 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.50 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Accrington ST lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 56% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 58% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.99 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.161 / defence 1.187 | Burton Albion attack 0.805 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.067. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Accrington ST games / 48 Burton Albion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 60% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 19%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Burton Albion 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Accrington ST (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Accrington ST at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 80% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 60% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Accrington ST 1.99 / Burton Albion 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.161 / def 1.187 | Burton Albion attack 0.805 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Burton Albion xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Burton Albion kick off?
Accrington ST vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Accrington ST 4 - 4 Burton Albion.
Where is Accrington ST vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Burton Albion part of?
Accrington ST vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 60% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Accrington ST and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Burton Albion?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Burton Albion in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 1.16x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.81x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.69
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.01
1.02
Burton Albion xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
3%
38.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.02 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 11D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.10 PPG from 48 outings (14W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.10 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 7D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (4W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Burton Albion away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.79 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 4-0 on 23 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
3
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Burton Albion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Burton Albion 0-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 71%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Accrington ST) and 50% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Accrington ST's games and 46% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Accrington ST's matches and 50% of Burton Albion's.
Do Accrington ST and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Accrington ST and Burton Albion drew 4-4 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.99 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.16 / defence 1.19 against Burton Albion attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 60% | Draw 21% | Burton Albion 19%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 58%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.35 PPG, Burton Albion 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.