Wrexham 2-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 38 as Wrexham welcome Swansea to Racecourse Ground. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wrexham — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wrexham have posted 4W 3D 3L at Racecourse Ground — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Swansea have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Wrexham) versus 1.90 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 for Swansea and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wrexham trading profile (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Swansea trading profile (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 52% versus Swansea 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 46% | Swansea 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.81 xG and Swansea 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.239 / defence 1.286 | Swansea attack 0.850 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.197. Data: 36 Wrexham games / 83 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Swansea 3.70. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 90% | Swansea 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Wrexham 1.81 / Swansea 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.239 / def 1.286 | Swansea attack 0.850 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Swansea xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Swansea kick off?
Wrexham vs Swansea kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Racecourse Ground.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Swansea?
Wrexham 2 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Wrexham vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Swansea part of?
Wrexham vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 48% chance of winning, Swansea a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wrexham and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 0W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Wrexham and Swansea in?
Wrexham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Swansea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wrexham's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Swansea's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.06
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Swansea xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
4%
22.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.31 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wrexham come into this having played 82 games, going 42W 23D 17L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.38 PPG from 82 outings (32W 17D 33L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wrexham's home form reads 22W 11D 7L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.05 points per game from 40 outings (12W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Swansea in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 42W 23D 17L in their last 82 games (1.82 PPG), while Swansea have gone 32W 17D 33L in their last 82 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Swansea away?
Wrexham's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 1.92 PPG; Swansea away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Swansea in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
0
Draws
1
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Swansea?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Swansea have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Wrexham 2-0 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 60%, Swansea 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wrexham) and 50% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Swansea in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Wrexham's recent matches and 45% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Wrexham's recent games and 50% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Swansea tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Swansea in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Swansea 2-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.81 xG and Swansea 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Swansea landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.24 / defence 1.29 against Swansea attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 46%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.