Wigan 1-5 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Burnley travel to DW Stadium to take on Wigan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wigan have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at DW Stadium, Wigan have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wigan at 1.20 PPG versus Burnley's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 60% versus Burnley 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 51% | Burnley 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 0.90 xG and Burnley 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.727 / defence 1.015 | Burnley attack 0.772 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 0.963. Wigan's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Wigan games / 5 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 37% | Draw 34% | Burnley 29%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Burnley 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Burnley's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 50% | Burnley 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 37% | Draw 34% | Burnley 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Wigan 0.90 / Burnley 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.727 / def 1.015 | Burnley attack 0.772 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.316 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: Wigan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Burnley xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Burnley kick off?
Wigan vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Burnley?
Wigan 1 - 5 Burnley.
Where is Wigan vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Burnley part of?
Wigan vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 37% chance of winning, Burnley a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Wigan and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Burnley in?
Wigan (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Burnley (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.73x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
37%
2.71
34%
2.90
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.66
0.75
Burnley xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.18
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 14.4 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Wigan and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Wigan and 0.75 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 23W 13D 7L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley's form line: 8W 17D 18L from 43 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 3W 8D 10L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.93 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Burnley in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 23W 13D 7L in their last 43 games (1.91 PPG), while Burnley have gone 8W 17D 18L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Burnley away?
Wigan's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.71 PPG; Burnley away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Wigan or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Burnley in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wigan
0
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burnley?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Burnley 3-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 62%, Burnley 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Wigan) and 33% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Wigan's recent matches and 48% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Wigan's recent games and 33% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Burnley tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Burnley in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Wigan 1-5 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.90 xG and Burnley 0.75 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 0.75 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 37% | Draw 34% | Burnley 29%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 51%, Burnley 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.