Wigan 2-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackpool at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Blackpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Blackpool at DW Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackpool stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Blackpool's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Wigan's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Blackpool in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 61% versus Blackpool 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 52% | Blackpool 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 0.80 xG and Blackpool 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.581 / defence 1.398 | Blackpool attack 0.976 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.133. Wigan's attack strength of 0.581 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Wigan games / 66 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 19% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 55%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Blackpool 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Blackpool (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackpool at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 50% | Blackpool 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 19% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Wigan 0.80 / Blackpool 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.581 / def 1.398 | Blackpool attack 0.976 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Blackpool (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Blackpool xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Blackpool kick off?
Wigan vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Blackpool?
Wigan 2 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Wigan vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Blackpool part of?
Wigan vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 19% chance of winning, Blackpool a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Blackpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wigan and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Blackpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Blackpool in?
Wigan (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Blackpool (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wigan's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Blackpool's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Blackpool's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackpool Win
19%
5.14
26%
3.90
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.35
1.55
Blackpool xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
4%
24.10
25%
4.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.7 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wigan and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Wigan and 1.55 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Blackpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 32W 16D 18L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackpool's form line: 22W 16D 28L from 66 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Blackpool.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L).
On the road, Blackpool have gone 8W 12D 13L from 33 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.17 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Blackpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 32W 16D 18L in their last 66 games (1.70 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Blackpool away?
Wigan's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.52 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Wigan or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Blackpool in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan's record when hosting Blackpool specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wigan
3
Draws
3
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Blackpool?
From 8 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Blackpool have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Blackpool 1-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 58%, Blackpool 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Wigan) and 42% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Blackpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Wigan's games and 61% of Blackpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wigan's recent games and 42% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Blackpool tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Blackpool 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Blackpool 2-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.80 xG and Blackpool 1.55 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wigan beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.58 / defence 1.40 against Blackpool attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 19% | Draw 26% | Blackpool 55%, with Blackpool to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Wigan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 52%, Blackpool 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackpool's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.