West Ham 1-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's home record at London Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at London Stadium.
QPR (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in West Ham's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 56% versus QPR 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 65% | QPR 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.92 xG and QPR 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.529 / defence 0.997 | QPR attack 1.021 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.256. West Ham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.529 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 West Ham games / 54 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 51% | Draw 25% | QPR 24%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 4.17. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Ham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 40% | QPR 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 51% | Draw 25% | QPR 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG West Ham 1.92 / QPR 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.529 / def 0.997 | QPR attack 1.021 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: West Ham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
QPR xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs QPR kick off?
West Ham vs QPR kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs QPR?
West Ham 1 - 1 QPR.
Where is West Ham vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs QPR part of?
West Ham vs QPR is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 51% chance of winning, QPR a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both West Ham and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and QPR in?
West Ham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.53x the league average against QPR's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — QPR's attack (1.02x) against West Ham's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.95
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.20
1.28
QPR xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
3%
28.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are West Ham and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for West Ham and 1.28 for QPR, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Ham's recent record stands at 14W 12D 20L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 19L across 46 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for West Ham against 1.28 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 9W 4D 10L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 7W 8D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.30 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and QPR in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while QPR have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or QPR away?
West Ham's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.35 PPG; QPR away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
West Ham
1
Draws
0
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and QPR?
From 1 meetings on record, West Ham have won 0, QPR have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when West Ham 1-1 QPR.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 56%, QPR 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (West Ham) and 44% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: QPR in 30%; West Ham have failed to score in 26% of games; QPR in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of West Ham's recent matches and 48% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of West Ham's matches and 44% of QPR's.
Do West Ham and QPR tend to score early?
West Ham have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, QPR in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Ham and QPR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as West Ham and QPR drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.92 xG and QPR 1.28 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. West Ham fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.53 / defence 1.00 against QPR attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 51% | Draw 25% | QPR 24%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 65%, QPR 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.17 PPG, QPR 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.