West Brom 0-0 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
West Brom host Stoke City at The Hawthorns in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stoke City away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Stoke City's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of West Brom's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for West Brom, 2 for Stoke City and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with West Brom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Stoke City in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 57% versus Stoke City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 43% | Stoke City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.09 xG and Stoke City 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.000 / defence 1.373 | Stoke City attack 0.875 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.136. Data: 76 West Brom games / 76 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 29% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 42%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Stoke City 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
West Brom dominate the H2H record, yet Stoke City are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stoke City at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 70% | Stoke City 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 29% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG West Brom 1.09 / Stoke City 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.000 / def 1.373 | Stoke City attack 0.875 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Stoke City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Stoke City kick off?
West Brom vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:01 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Stoke City?
West Brom 0 - 0 Stoke City.
Where is West Brom vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Stoke City part of?
West Brom vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 29% chance of winning, Stoke City a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both West Brom and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Stoke City?
Record (9 meetings): West Brom 4W | Draws 3 | Stoke City 2W.
What form are West Brom and Stoke City in?
West Brom (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Stoke City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.00) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
29%
3.47
29%
3.40
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.46
1.36
Stoke City xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are West Brom and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for West Brom and 1.36 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom come into this having played 76 games, going 24W 24D 28L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.22 PPG from 76 outings (24W 21D 31L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.26 PPG, Stoke City on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
West Brom's home form reads 17W 12D 8L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.05 points per game from 37 outings (10W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.04 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Stoke City in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 24W 24D 28L in their last 76 games (1.26 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Stoke City away?
West Brom's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.70 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.05 PPG.
Have West Brom or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Stoke City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
West Brom's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
West Brom
4
Draws
2
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 4, Stoke City have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when West Brom 0-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Stoke City?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 51%, Stoke City 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (West Brom) and 32% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stoke City in 32%; West Brom have failed to score in 27% of games; Stoke City in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of West Brom's recent matches and 35% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of West Brom's recent games and 32% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Stoke City tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 31, as West Brom and Stoke City drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.09 xG and Stoke City 1.36 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Stoke City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.00 / defence 1.37 against Stoke City attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 29% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 42%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 43%, Stoke City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stoke City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.26 PPG, Stoke City 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.