West Brom 2-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off: Monday 10 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 8W 2D 0L at The Hawthorns — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.10 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
QPR (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward West Brom. A 0.90 PPG lead over QPR (1.20 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: West Brom 2W, QPR 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with West Brom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (85 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 39% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 35% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.66 xG and QPR 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.924 / defence 0.623 | QPR attack 0.781 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.095. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. West Brom's defence rating of 0.623 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 85 West Brom games / 86 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 64% | Draw 25% | QPR 11%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | QPR 9.09. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — QPR's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 10% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 64% | Draw 25% | QPR 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 34% | xG West Brom 1.66 / QPR 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.924 / def 0.623 | QPR attack 0.781 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: West Brom (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.53
QPR xG
34%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs QPR kick off?
West Brom vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs QPR?
West Brom 2 - 2 QPR.
Where is West Brom vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs QPR part of?
West Brom vs QPR is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 64% chance of winning, QPR a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both West Brom and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
Record (3 meetings): West Brom 2W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are West Brom and QPR in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. QPR (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Brom's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.78x) against West Brom's defence (0.62x) — and the away total comes out at 0.53.
These ratings are built from 85/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.4%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
64%
1.55
25%
4.03
11%
9.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.19
0.53
QPR xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
9.26
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
38%
2.64
2%
48.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are West Brom and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for West Brom and 0.53 for QPR, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs QPR?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 85 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 33W 24D 28L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 30W 17D 38L from 85 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for West Brom against 1.26 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.86 PPG from 43 outings (22W 14D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, QPR have gone 14W 8D 21L from 43 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and QPR in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 33W 24D 28L in their last 85 games (1.45 PPG), while QPR have gone 30W 17D 38L in their last 85 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or QPR away?
West Brom's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.86 PPG; QPR away: 1.16 PPG.
Have West Brom or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, QPR in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
West Brom
2
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 6, QPR have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when West Brom 2-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and QPR?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 33%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (West Brom) and 56% (QPR).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 26% of games; QPR in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of West Brom's recent matches and 56% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of West Brom's recent games and 56% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and QPR tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, QPR in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and QPR share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and QPR finished level at 2-2 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.66 xG and QPR 0.53 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. QPR outscored their 0.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.92 / defence 0.62 against QPR attack 0.78 / defence 1.44, drawn from 85/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 64% | Draw 25% | QPR 11%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 35%, QPR 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
QPR's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.45 PPG, QPR 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.