West Brom 0-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates West Brom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
Birmingham's overall Championship record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Birmingham have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: West Brom 2W, Birmingham 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 52% versus Birmingham 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 44% | Birmingham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.25 xG and Birmingham 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.938 / defence 0.872 | Birmingham attack 0.912 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.253. Data: 54 West Brom games / 54 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 40% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 27%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Birmingham 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 50% | Birmingham 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 40% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG West Brom 1.25 / Birmingham 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.938 / def 0.872 | Birmingham attack 0.912 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: West Brom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Birmingham xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Birmingham kick off?
West Brom vs Birmingham kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
West Brom 0 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is West Brom vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Birmingham part of?
West Brom vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 40% chance of winning, Birmingham a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both West Brom and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
Record (8 meetings): West Brom 2W | Draws 2 | Birmingham 4W.
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Birmingham (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.94) and Birmingham's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.91x) against West Brom's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.04
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.25
1.00
Birmingham xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are West Brom and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for West Brom and 1.00 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 16D 21L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Birmingham's form line: 19W 18D 17L from 54 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for West Brom against 1.39 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (10W 12D 5L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 7W 6D 14L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.28 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 19W 18D 17L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Birmingham away?
West Brom's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.56 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
West Brom
2
Draws
5
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
From 9 meetings on record, West Brom have won 2, Birmingham have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when West Brom 0-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 56%, Birmingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (West Brom) and 48% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 26% of games; Birmingham in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of West Brom's recent matches and 52% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of West Brom's recent games and 48% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Birmingham tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Birmingham defy the odds to beat West Brom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat West Brom 0-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.25 xG and Birmingham 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Birmingham attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 40% | Draw 33% | Birmingham 27%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Birmingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 44%, Birmingham 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Birmingham's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.24 PPG, Birmingham 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Birmingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.