Swansea 2-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Cardiff at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 4W 2D 4L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Swansea.com Stadium this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Swansea have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Swansea, 0 for Cardiff and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 4–0 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 49% versus Cardiff 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 54% | Cardiff 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.67 xG and Cardiff 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.074 / defence 1.114 | Cardiff attack 0.896 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.141. Data: 61 Swansea games / 61 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 26%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Cardiff 3.85. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swansea at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Swansea 40% | Cardiff 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Swansea 1.67 / Cardiff 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.074 / def 1.114 | Cardiff attack 0.896 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Swansea (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cardiff xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Cardiff kick off?
Swansea vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Swansea 2 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Swansea vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Cardiff part of?
Swansea vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 50% chance of winning, Cardiff a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Swansea and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 2W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in?
Swansea (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (1.07) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.13
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.81
1.14
Cardiff xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
5%
20.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Swansea and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Swansea and 1.14 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 23W 16D 22L from 61 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 30L across 61 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.39 PPG, Cardiff on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 13W 9D 9L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 10W 5D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.02 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 23W 16D 22L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 20W 11D 30L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Cardiff away?
Swansea's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.55 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Swansea or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cardiff in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Cardiff?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 48%, Cardiff 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Swansea) and 61% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 29% of games; Cardiff in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Swansea's recent matches and 55% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Swansea's matches and 61% of Cardiff's.
Do Swansea and Cardiff tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Cardiff 2-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.67 xG and Cardiff 1.14 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Cardiff attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 50% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 26%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 54%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.39 PPG, Cardiff 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.