Swansea 0-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Burnley (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Swansea face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Swansea (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Swansea have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (80%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burnley are 1.20 PPG clear of Swansea over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Burnley, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Swansea 0–1 Burnley — a Burnley win.
Burnley have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Swansea — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 49% versus Burnley 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Burnley 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.71 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.978 / defence 0.982 | Burnley attack 1.071 / defence 0.545. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.032. Burnley bring a tight defence (rating 0.545, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Swansea's projected output down. Data: built from Swansea's last 83 games and Burnley's last 37.
Result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 33% | Burnley 44%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 4.22 | Draw 3.07 | Burnley 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Swansea's lower xG of 0.71 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swansea's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 38 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 24% | Draw 33% | Burnley 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Swansea 0.71 / Burnley 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.978 / def 0.982 | Burnley attack 1.071 / def 0.545 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Burnley (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Burnley xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Burnley kick off?
Swansea vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Burnley?
Swansea 0 - 2 Burnley.
Where is Swansea vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Burnley part of?
Swansea vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 24% chance of winning, Burnley a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Swansea and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Swansea vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.98x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.07x) against Swansea's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 83 games and Burnley's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
24%
4.22
33%
3.07
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.80
1.09
Burnley xG
4.22
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
8%
12.52
21%
4.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 17.9 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Swansea and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Swansea and 1.09 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea's recent record stands at 26W 17D 32L from 75 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 25W 24D 26L across 75 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Swansea against 1.32 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 14W 8D 15L from their last 37 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 13W 11D 13L across their last 37 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.21 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Burnley in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 26W 17D 32L in their last 75 games (1.27 PPG), while Burnley have gone 25W 24D 26L in their last 75 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Burnley away?
Swansea's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.35 PPG; Burnley away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Swansea or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Burnley in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Swansea and Burnley, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won Burnley 4-0 Swansea on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Burnley?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 1, Burnley have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Swansea 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 46%, Burnley 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Swansea) and 43% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Burnley in 35%; Swansea have failed to score in 27% of games; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Swansea's recent matches and 46% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Swansea's recent games and 43% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Swansea's recent matches and 70% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Swansea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Swansea 0-2 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.71 xG and Burnley 1.09 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Burnley attack 1.07 / defence 0.55, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 24% | Draw 33% | Burnley 44%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Burnley 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.27 PPG, Burnley 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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