Swansea 3-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Blackburn travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 January 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackburn — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Swansea carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Swansea, 4 for Blackburn and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Swansea trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 47% versus Blackburn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Blackburn 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.05 xG and Blackburn 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.901 / defence 1.036 | Blackburn attack 0.753 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.127. Data: 73 Swansea games / 72 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 38% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Blackburn 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 60% | Blackburn 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 38% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Swansea 1.05 / Blackburn 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.901 / def 1.036 | Blackburn attack 0.753 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Swansea (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Blackburn xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Blackburn kick off?
Swansea vs Blackburn kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 January 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Swansea 3 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Swansea vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Blackburn part of?
Swansea vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 38% chance of winning, Blackburn a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Swansea and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
Record (9 meetings): Swansea 5W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 4W.
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Blackburn (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.90x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.08
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.93
0.88
Blackburn xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Swansea and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Swansea and 0.88 for Blackburn, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 16D 30L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.31 PPG from 72 outings (26W 16D 30L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.31 PPG, Blackburn on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 15W 10D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (12W 8D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.07 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 26W 16D 30L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 26W 16D 30L in their last 72 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Blackburn away?
Swansea's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.53 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Swansea or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Blackburn in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swansea have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
0
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 6, Blackburn have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Blackburn?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 50%, Blackburn 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Swansea) and 36% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Blackburn in 36%; Blackburn in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Swansea's recent matches and 33% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Swansea's recent games and 36% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Blackburn tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Blackburn 3-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.05 xG and Blackburn 0.88 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Blackburn attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 38% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 29%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.31 PPG, Blackburn 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.