Swansea 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and Birmingham meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham's overall Championship record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Swansea's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Birmingham's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Birmingham, who have claimed 3 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Birmingham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Birmingham have won 3 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Birmingham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.63 xG and Birmingham 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.935 / defence 1.019 | Birmingham attack 0.647 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.125. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Swansea games / 26 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 58% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 17%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Birmingham 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Swansea (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Birmingham lead the H2H ledger, but Swansea carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Swansea 60% | Birmingham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 58% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Swansea 1.63 / Birmingham 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.935 / def 1.019 | Birmingham attack 0.647 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Swansea (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Birmingham xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Birmingham kick off?
Swansea vs Birmingham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Birmingham?
Swansea 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Swansea vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Birmingham part of?
Swansea vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 58% chance of winning, Birmingham a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Swansea and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Birmingham?
Record (7 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 4 | Birmingham 3W.
What form are Swansea and Birmingham in?
Swansea (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Swansea's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.65x) against Swansea's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 72/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.97
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.37
0.74
Birmingham xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
30.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Swansea and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Swansea and 0.74 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Swansea come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 15D 31L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 2.01 PPG from 72 outings (43W 16D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Birmingham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Swansea's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 1.61 points per game from 36 outings (17W 7D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Swansea are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.65 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 26W 15D 31L in their last 72 games (1.29 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 43W 16D 13L in their last 72 (2.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.58 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Swansea or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Birmingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Swansea
5
Draws
3
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Birmingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Birmingham have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Swansea 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 47%, Birmingham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Swansea) and 50% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Swansea's recent matches and 56% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Birmingham tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Swansea and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.63 xG and Birmingham 0.74 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Birmingham attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 72/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 58% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 17%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Birmingham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.01 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.