Stoke City 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stoke City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stoke City vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 27 as Stoke City welcome QPR to Bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stoke City — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Bet365 Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stoke City) versus 1.60 (QPR). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Stoke City, 3 for QPR and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stoke City in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 42% versus QPR 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 39% | QPR 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.50 xG and QPR 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.987 / defence 0.861 | QPR attack 0.901 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.140. Data: 72 Stoke City games / 72 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 51% | Draw 27% | QPR 22%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | QPR 4.55. Stoke City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 50% | QPR 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 51% | Draw 27% | QPR 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Stoke City 1.50 / QPR 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.987 / def 0.861 | QPR attack 0.901 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
0.89
QPR xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs QPR kick off?
Stoke City vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Stoke City 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Stoke City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs QPR part of?
Stoke City vs QPR is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 51% chance of winning, QPR a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stoke City and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
Record (9 meetings): Stoke City 4W | Draws 2 | QPR 3W.
What form are Stoke City and QPR in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. QPR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.70
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.39
0.89
QPR xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
20.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stoke City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stoke City and 0.89 for QPR, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stoke City's recent record stands at 24W 19D 29L from 72 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 28L across 72 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.26 PPG, QPR on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 14W 11D 10L from 35 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 11W 8D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 65%.
Last 72 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and QPR in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 24W 19D 29L in their last 72 games (1.26 PPG), while QPR have gone 25W 19D 28L in their last 72 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or QPR away?
Stoke City's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.51 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Stoke City or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stoke City
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stoke City 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and QPR?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 51%, QPR 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stoke City) and 46% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Stoke City have failed to score in 29% of games; QPR in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Stoke City's recent matches and 57% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stoke City vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stoke City's recent games and 46% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stoke City and QPR tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, QPR in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stoke City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City and QPR finished level at 0-0 at Bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.50 xG and QPR 0.89 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stoke City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 51% | Draw 27% | QPR 22%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 39%, QPR 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.26 PPG, QPR 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.