Sheffield Utd 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Utd at 50%, yet in-form Derby provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sheffield Utd vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Derby travel to Bramall Lane to take on Sheffield Utd. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Utd stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sheffield Utd have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bramall Lane, Sheffield Utd have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bramall Lane this season.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sheffield Utd, 1 for Derby and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–2 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Utd in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 56% versus Derby 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 65% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.70 xG and Derby 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.892 / defence 1.057 | Derby attack 0.970 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.118. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Sheffield Utd's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Sheffield Utd games / 5 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 50% | Draw 24% | Derby 26%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 3.85. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Utd as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derby (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Utd 50% | Derby 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 50% | Draw 24% | Derby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Sheffield Utd 1.70 / Derby 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.892 / def 1.057 | Derby attack 0.970 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Derby kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Sheffield Utd 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Derby part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Derby is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 50% chance of winning, Derby a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Utd vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Sheffield Utd 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Sheffield Utd and Derby in?
Sheffield Utd (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sheffield Utd's attack at 0.89x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Sheffield Utd's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.18
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
2.85
1.15
Derby xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
5%
21.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 1.15 for Derby, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Utd's recent record stands at 6W 9D 28L from 43 games, a 0.63 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 27W 7D 9L across 43 games — 2.05 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 1.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Utd heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Utd have managed 3W 5D 13L from 21 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 10W 4D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.49 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.67 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Utd and Derby in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 6W 9D 28L in their last 43 games (0.63 PPG), while Derby have gone 27W 7D 9L in their last 43 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 0.67 PPG; Derby away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sheffield Utd or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Utd have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Derby in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sheffield Utd's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Utd have won 4, Derby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Derby?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 57%, Derby 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Sheffield Utd and 52% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby in 43%; Sheffield Utd have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Utd play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 43% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Utd vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 52% of Derby's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Derby tend to score early?
Sheffield Utd have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Derby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Utd edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Derby 1-0 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.70 xG and Derby 1.15 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Derby attack 0.97 / defence 1.37, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 50% | Draw 24% | Derby 26%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 65%, Derby 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.81 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.