QPR 0-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and West Brom meet at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Loftus Road this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Brom have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. QPR's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of West Brom's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, West Brom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — QPR lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with QPR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
West Brom — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 55% versus West Brom 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | West Brom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.46 xG and West Brom 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.125 / defence 0.893 | West Brom attack 0.985 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.116. Data: 64 QPR games / 64 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 48% | Draw 26% | West Brom 25%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | West Brom 4.00. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: QPR 60% | West Brom 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 48% | Draw 26% | West Brom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG QPR 1.46 / West Brom 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.125 / def 0.893 | West Brom attack 0.985 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: QPR (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.98
West Brom xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs West Brom kick off?
QPR vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs West Brom?
QPR 0 - 1 West Brom.
Where is QPR vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs West Brom part of?
QPR vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 48% chance of winning, West Brom a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both QPR and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | West Brom 0W.
What form are QPR and West Brom in?
QPR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. West Brom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.98x) against QPR's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
QPR xG
Total xG
2.44
0.98
West Brom xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
6%
16.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are QPR and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for QPR and 0.98 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, QPR have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 28W 13D 23L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 21W 21D 22L from 64 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for QPR against 1.31 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (15W 8D 8L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 7W 9D 15L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.14 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and West Brom in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 28W 13D 23L in their last 64 games (1.52 PPG), while West Brom have gone 21W 21D 22L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or West Brom away?
QPR's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.71 PPG; West Brom away: 0.97 PPG.
Have QPR or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, West Brom in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
QPR
3
Draws
5
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 2, West Brom have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 52%, West Brom 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (QPR) and 39% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; West Brom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of QPR's recent matches and 42% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of QPR's recent games and 39% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and West Brom tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, West Brom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as West Brom defy the odds to beat QPR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat QPR 0-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.46 xG and West Brom 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. QPR fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against West Brom attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 48% | Draw 26% | West Brom 25%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a West Brom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, West Brom 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.52 PPG, West Brom 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.