QPR vs West Brom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as QPR take on West Brom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and West Brom meet at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Loftus Road this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Brom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, West Brom have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to QPR's 2, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that West Brom have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
West Brom — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 63% versus West Brom 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 61% | West Brom 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.06 xG and West Brom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.833 / defence 1.032 | West Brom attack 0.789 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 54 QPR games / 54 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 34% | West Brom 32%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | West Brom 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: QPR 60% | West Brom 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 34% | Draw 34% | West Brom 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG QPR 1.06 / West Brom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.833 / def 1.032 | West Brom attack 0.789 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.02
West Brom xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs West Brom kick off?
QPR vs West Brom is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Loftus Road.
Where is QPR vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs West Brom part of?
QPR vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 34% chance of winning, West Brom a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in QPR vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both QPR and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
Record (10 meetings): QPR 2W | Draws 3 | West Brom 5W.
What form are QPR and West Brom in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. West Brom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.79x) against QPR's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
QPR xG
Total xG
2.09
1.02
West Brom xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are QPR and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for QPR and 1.02 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, QPR have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 14D 21L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 17W 16D 21L from 54 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for QPR against 1.24 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 7W 4D 16L from 27 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.07 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and West Brom in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while West Brom have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or West Brom away?
QPR's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; West Brom away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
QPR
3
Draws
5
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 2, West Brom have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, West Brom 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for QPR and 48% for West Brom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Brom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 48% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of QPR's matches and 48% of West Brom's.
Do QPR and West Brom tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, West Brom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.