QPR 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to Loftus Road to face QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 44. The match kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
QPR's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Loftus Road this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Swansea (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Swansea's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for QPR, 1.20 for Swansea — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: QPR 3W, Swansea 3W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with QPR winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus Swansea 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 56% | Swansea 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.75 xG and Swansea 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.228 / defence 1.246 | Swansea attack 0.905 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.170. Data: 89 QPR games / 89 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Swansea 3.70. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on QPR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: QPR 60% | Swansea 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG QPR 1.75 / Swansea 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.228 / def 1.246 | Swansea attack 0.905 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: QPR (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Swansea xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Swansea kick off?
QPR vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Swansea?
QPR 1 - 2 Swansea.
Where is QPR vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Swansea part of?
QPR vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 46% chance of winning, Swansea a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both QPR and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Swansea?
Record (9 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 3 | Swansea 3W.
What form are QPR and Swansea in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.23x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.91x) against QPR's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 89/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.79
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
QPR xG
Total xG
3.07
1.32
Swansea xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for QPR and 1.32 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 30W 24D 35L from 89 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 37L across 89 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for QPR against 1.33 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 17W 11D 16L from 44 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 13W 7D 24L across 44 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.15 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 89 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Swansea in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 30W 24D 35L in their last 89 games (1.28 PPG), while Swansea have gone 33W 19D 37L in their last 89 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Swansea away?
QPR's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; Swansea away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
QPR
3
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Swansea have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when QPR 1-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, Swansea 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (QPR) and 48% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swansea in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 43% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of QPR's matches and 48% of Swansea's.
Do QPR and Swansea tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Swansea in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat QPR 1-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.75 xG and Swansea 1.32 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.23 / defence 1.25 against Swansea attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 46% | Draw 26% | Swansea 27%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.28 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.