QPR 3-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Loftus Road, QPR have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hull City are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hull City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: QPR 4W, Hull City 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 62% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Hull City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.904 / defence 1.179 | Hull City attack 1.139 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.202. Data: 61 QPR games / 61 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 29% | Draw 25% | Hull City 46%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Hull City 2.17. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Hull City 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 29% | Draw 25% | Hull City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG QPR 1.23 / Hull City 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.904 / def 1.179 | Hull City attack 1.139 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Hull City xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Hull City kick off?
QPR vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Hull City?
QPR 3 - 2 Hull City.
Where is QPR vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Hull City part of?
QPR vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 29% chance of winning, Hull City a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both QPR and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
Record (8 meetings): QPR 4W | Draws 1 | Hull City 3W.
What form are QPR and Hull City in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
QPR's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.14x) against QPR's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
29%
3.42
25%
4.08
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
QPR xG
Total xG
2.85
1.61
Hull City xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.22
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are QPR and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for QPR and 1.61 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR's recent record stands at 19W 18D 24L from 61 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 25L across 61 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for QPR against 1.21 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, QPR have managed 9W 10D 11L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.15 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Hull City in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 19W 18D 24L in their last 61 games (1.23 PPG), while Hull City have gone 19W 17D 25L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Hull City away?
QPR's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.23 PPG; Hull City away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
QPR
1
Draws
3
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 6, Hull City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Hull City?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 70%, Hull City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (QPR) and 37% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of QPR's games and 47% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of QPR's recent games and 37% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Hull City tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hull City in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Hull City 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 3-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 29% | Draw 25% | Hull City 46%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Hull City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.23 PPG, Hull City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.