QPR 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 43 as QPR welcome Derby to Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — QPR are significantly better at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (QPR) versus 1.00 (Derby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for QPR, 0 for Derby and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Derby in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 60% versus Derby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 55% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.41 xG and Derby 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.927 / defence 1.221 | Derby attack 0.624 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.113. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 QPR games / 42 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 50% | Draw 27% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 4.35. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: QPR 50% | Derby 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 50% | Draw 27% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG QPR 1.41 / Derby 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.927 / def 1.221 | Derby attack 0.624 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: QPR (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
QPR xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Derby xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Derby kick off?
QPR vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What was the final score in QPR vs Derby?
QPR 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is QPR vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium.
What competition is QPR vs Derby part of?
QPR vs Derby is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 50% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both QPR and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 0W.
What form are QPR and Derby in?
QPR (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.67
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
QPR xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Derby xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for QPR and 0.85 for Derby, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, QPR have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 17W 9D 16L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 13W 13D 16L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.43 PPG, Derby on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Derby have gone 2W 6D 13L from 21 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.00 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Derby in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 17W 9D 16L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Derby have gone 13W 13D 16L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Derby away?
QPR's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.57 PPG; Derby away: 0.57 PPG.
Have QPR or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derby in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
QPR
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 48%, Derby 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (QPR) and 38% (Derby).
On the defensive side: QPR keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derby in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of QPR's recent matches and 48% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of QPR's recent games and 38% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Derby tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Derby in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Derby 1-0 at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.41 xG and Derby 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.93 / defence 1.22 against Derby attack 0.62 / defence 1.47, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 50% | Draw 27% | Derby 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 55%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.43 PPG, Derby 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.