QPR 1-3 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
QPR host Blackburn at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
QPR at Loftus Road this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Blackburn — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for QPR, 2 for Blackburn and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Blackburn winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 53% versus Blackburn 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 52% | Blackburn 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.08 xG and Blackburn 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.799 / defence 1.336 | Blackburn attack 0.830 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.108. QPR's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 79 QPR games / 79 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 39%. Fair-value odds: QPR 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Blackburn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackburn at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: QPR 50% | Blackburn 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 32% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG QPR 1.08 / Blackburn 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.799 / def 1.336 | Blackburn attack 0.830 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Blackburn xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Blackburn kick off?
QPR vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Blackburn?
QPR 1 - 3 Blackburn.
Where is QPR vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Blackburn part of?
QPR vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 32% chance of winning, Blackburn a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both QPR and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
Record (3 meetings): QPR 1W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 2W.
What form are QPR and Blackburn in?
QPR (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from QPR's attack rating (0.80) and Blackburn's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.39
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
QPR xG
Total xG
2.31
1.23
Blackburn xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for QPR and 1.23 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, QPR have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 29W 18D 32L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Blackburn's form line: 35W 16D 28L from 79 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.33 PPG, Blackburn on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.41 PPG from 39 outings (15W 10D 14L).
On the road, Blackburn have gone 12W 9D 18L from 39 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Blackburn in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Blackburn in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 29W 18D 32L in their last 79 games (1.33 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 35W 16D 28L in their last 79 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Blackburn away?
QPR's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.41 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.15 PPG.
Have QPR or Blackburn been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Blackburn in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
QPR
0
Draws
6
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 4, Blackburn have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when QPR 1-3 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 51%, Blackburn 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (QPR) and 38% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 26% of games; Blackburn in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of QPR's recent matches and 38% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of QPR's recent games and 38% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Blackburn tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat QPR 1-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.08 xG and Blackburn 1.23 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.80 / defence 1.34 against Blackburn attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 32% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Blackburn 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.33 PPG, Blackburn 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.