Preston 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preston vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Sunderland travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 November 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's home record at Deepdale: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sunderland — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Preston have won 1, Sunderland 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 49% versus Sunderland 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 58% | Sunderland 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.06 xG and Sunderland 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.942 / defence 1.072 | Sunderland attack 1.078 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.007. Data: 59 Preston games / 59 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 31% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 37%. Fair-value odds: Preston 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Sunderland 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Preston 30% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 31% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Preston 1.06 / Sunderland 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.942 / def 1.072 | Sunderland attack 1.078 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sunderland xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Sunderland kick off?
Preston vs Sunderland kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 6 November 2024 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Sunderland?
Preston 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Preston vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Sunderland part of?
Preston vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 31% chance of winning, Sunderland a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Preston and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Preston and Sunderland in?
Preston (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Preston vs Sunderland?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Preston's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.15
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Preston xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Sunderland xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Preston and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Preston and 1.16 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Preston have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 14D 24L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland's form line: 25W 10D 24L from 59 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.31 PPG, Sunderland on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Preston are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Sunderland away?
Preston's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.60 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Preston or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sunderland in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2023, when Sunderland won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Preston
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Preston have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Sunderland 1-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 57%, Sunderland 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Preston) and 40% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%; Preston have failed to score in 27% of games; Sunderland in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Preston's recent matches and 47% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Preston's recent games and 40% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Sunderland tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.06 xG and Sunderland 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Sunderland attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 31% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 37%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 58%, Sunderland 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.31 PPG, Sunderland 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.