Preston 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 36%, yet in-form Preston provide a compelling counter-argument — this Preston vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees QPR travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 December 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Deepdale this season.
QPR — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Preston have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Preston, 1 for QPR and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Preston winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Preston trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
QPR trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 48% versus QPR 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 43% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.03 xG and QPR 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.834 / defence 1.040 | QPR attack 0.881 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.147. Data: 68 Preston games / 68 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 34% | Draw 30% | QPR 36%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | QPR 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Preston (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Preston 30% | QPR 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 34% | Draw 30% | QPR 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Preston 1.03 / QPR 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.834 / def 1.040 | QPR attack 0.881 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: QPR (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.05
QPR xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs QPR kick off?
Preston vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 December 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs QPR?
Preston 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Preston vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs QPR part of?
Preston vs QPR is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 34% chance of winning, QPR a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Preston and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are Preston and QPR in?
Preston (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Preston's attack at 0.83x the league average against QPR's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.32
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Preston xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
QPR xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Preston and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Preston and 1.05 for QPR, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Preston have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 25W 23D 20L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 28W 13D 27L from 68 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.44 PPG, QPR on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (12W 14D 8L).
On the road, QPR have gone 13W 5D 16L from 34 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Preston are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Preston have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and QPR in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 25W 23D 20L in their last 68 games (1.44 PPG), while QPR have gone 28W 13D 27L in their last 68 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or QPR away?
Preston's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.47 PPG; QPR away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Preston or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, QPR in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preston and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Preston's record when hosting QPR specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Preston
2
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, QPR have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Preston 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Preston and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 59%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Preston) and 56% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Preston keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Preston have failed to score in 26% of games; QPR in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Preston's games and 56% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Preston's recent games and 56% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and QPR tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, QPR in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Preston 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Preston 0-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.03 xG and QPR 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Preston fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against QPR attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 34% | Draw 30% | QPR 36%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 43%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.44 PPG, QPR 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.