Preston 2-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 52%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Preston vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Plymouth in Championship, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Preston (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Preston have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preston have posted 6W 3D 1L at Deepdale — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Preston are significantly better at Deepdale than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plymouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plymouth are 0.80 PPG clear of Preston in recent Championship fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Preston have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Plymouth in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 43% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 43% | Plymouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.57 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 1.093 / defence 0.982 | Plymouth attack 0.771 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.237. Data: 51 Preston games / 5 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 52% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 22%. Fair-value odds: Preston 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 4.55. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Preston 70% | Plymouth 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 52% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Preston 1.57 / Plymouth 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 1.093 / def 0.982 | Plymouth attack 0.771 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Preston (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Plymouth kick off?
Preston vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Plymouth?
Preston 2 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Preston vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Plymouth part of?
Preston vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 52% chance of winning, Plymouth a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Preston and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preston and Plymouth in?
Preston (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Plymouth (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Preston's attack at 1.09x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.77x) against Preston's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 51/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.77
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Preston xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Plymouth xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Preston and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Preston and 0.94 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Preston's recent record stands at 21W 13D 17L from 51 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Preston, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 33W 9D 9L across 51 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plymouth by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Preston heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Preston have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 11W 8D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Attack vs Defence
Preston are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.76 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Preston have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Plymouth in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 13D 17L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 33W 9D 9L in their last 51 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.36 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Preston or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Plymouth in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Preston
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Preston 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Plymouth?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preston see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 48%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Preston) and 60% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 32%; Preston have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Preston's recent matches and 60% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Preston's recent games and 60% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Plymouth tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Plymouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Plymouth 2-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.57 xG and Plymouth 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Plymouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 52% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 22%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 43%, Plymouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.49. Form was overturned, with Preston winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.