Plymouth 5-1 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Millwall (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plymouth face Millwall.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Millwall travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 12 February 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Home Park, Plymouth have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Millwall have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Millwall's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Millwall — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Millwall, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Plymouth.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Millwall winning.
It is worth noting that Millwall have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Millwall in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 51% versus Millwall 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Millwall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.01 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.037 / defence 1.546 | Millwall attack 0.854 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.053. Millwall's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 76 Plymouth games / 76 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Millwall 2.17. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Millwall as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 70% | Millwall 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Plymouth 1.01 / Millwall 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.037 / def 1.546 | Millwall attack 0.854 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Millwall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Millwall xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Millwall kick off?
Plymouth vs Millwall kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 12 February 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Millwall?
Plymouth 5 - 1 Millwall.
Where is Plymouth vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Millwall part of?
Plymouth vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 27% chance of winning, Millwall a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plymouth and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Millwall?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Millwall 3W.
What form are Plymouth and Millwall in?
Plymouth (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Millwall (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.04x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Millwall's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
27%
3.70
27%
3.65
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.40
1.39
Millwall xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.39 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth come into this having played 76 games, going 18W 22D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Millwall sit at 1.30 PPG from 76 outings (26W 21D 29L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.00 PPG, Millwall on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plymouth's home form reads 14W 11D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Millwall have taken 1.16 points per game from 37 outings (10W 13D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 0.99 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Millwall in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 18W 22D 36L in their last 76 games (1.00 PPG), while Millwall have gone 26W 21D 29L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Millwall away?
Plymouth's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.43 PPG; Millwall away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Millwall in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Millwall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2025, when Plymouth won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Millwall specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Millwall?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Millwall have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2025, when Plymouth 5-1 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Millwall 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 30% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 38%; Millwall in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Plymouth's recent matches and 43% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Plymouth's recent games and 30% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Millwall tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Millwall in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Millwall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Millwall 5-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.01 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.04 / defence 1.55 against Millwall attack 0.85 / defence 0.72, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Millwall 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Millwall's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Millwall 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Millwall (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.