Peterborough 1-4 Coventry – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Coventry fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coventry make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in Championship, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's home record at Weston Homes Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Coventry's overall Championship record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Coventry have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Peterborough against 1.10 for Coventry. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Peterborough lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Coventry winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Coventry half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 44% versus Coventry 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 61% | Coventry 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.14 xG and Coventry 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.929 / defence 1.022 | Coventry attack 0.772 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.147. Coventry bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Peterborough games / 23 Coventry games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 41% | Draw 31% | Coventry 28%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Coventry 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Coventry 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Coventry | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 41% | Draw 31% | Coventry 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Peterborough 1.14 / Coventry 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.929 / def 1.022 | Coventry attack 0.772 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Coventry xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Coventry kick off?
Peterborough vs Coventry kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Coventry?
Peterborough 1 - 4 Coventry.
Where is Peterborough vs Coventry being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Coventry part of?
Peterborough vs Coventry is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Coventry?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 41% chance of winning, Coventry a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Coventry?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Peterborough and Coventry will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Coventry have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Coventry?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Coventry 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Coventry in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Coventry (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 0.93x the league average against Coventry's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coventry's attack (0.77x) against Peterborough's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
41%
2.47
31%
3.23
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.04
0.91
Coventry xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Coventry?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Coventry expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.91 for Coventry, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Coventry?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 5W 4D 14L from 23 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coventry, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 7L across 23 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coventry by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Peterborough are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Coventry's away record stands at 2W 5D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coventry's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Coventry are on 1.26 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Coventry
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Coventry in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 5W 4D 14L in their last 23 games (0.83 PPG), while Coventry have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Coventry away?
Peterborough's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.45 PPG; Coventry away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Coventry been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Coventry in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Coventry
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Coventry?
From 2 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Coventry have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Coventry last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2022, when Peterborough 1-4 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Coventry?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 54%, Coventry 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Peterborough) and 36% (Coventry).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 36% of games; Coventry in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Coventry away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Coventry?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Peterborough's recent matches and 46% of Coventry's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Coventry usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Peterborough's recent games and 36% of Coventry's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Coventry tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 27% of their recent matches, Coventry in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Coventry run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Peterborough 1-4 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.14 xG and Coventry 0.91 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Coventry outscored their 0.91 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Coventry attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 41% | Draw 31% | Coventry 28%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 61%, Coventry 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Coventry's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.