Norwich 1-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norwich at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 45 sees Swansea travel to Carrow Road to take on Norwich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Norwich have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Norwich have posted 6W 1D 3L at Carrow Road — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Norwich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Norwich, 4 for Swansea and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Norwich in-play and half-time data (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play and half-time data (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 62% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 50% | Swansea 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.31 xG and Swansea 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.944 / defence 0.973 | Swansea attack 0.938 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.179. Data: 90 Norwich games / 90 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Swansea 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Swansea lead the H2H ledger, but Norwich carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norwich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Norwich 50% | Swansea 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Norwich 1.31 / Swansea 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.944 / def 0.973 | Swansea attack 0.938 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Norwich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Swansea xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Swansea kick off?
Norwich vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Swansea?
Norwich 1 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Norwich vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Swansea part of?
Norwich vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 40% chance of winning, Swansea a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Norwich and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Swansea?
Record (7 meetings): Norwich 2W | Draws 1 | Swansea 4W.
What form are Norwich and Swansea in?
Norwich (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Norwich's attack at 0.94x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.24
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.39
1.08
Swansea xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Norwich and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Norwich and 1.08 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norwich's recent record stands at 33W 22D 35L from 90 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 34W 19D 37L across 90 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 1.34 PPG, Swansea on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 19W 10D 16L from 45 games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 14W 7D 24L across 45 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.16 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Swansea in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 33W 22D 35L in their last 90 games (1.34 PPG), while Swansea have gone 34W 19D 37L in their last 90 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Swansea away?
Norwich's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.49 PPG; Swansea away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norwich and Swansea runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2025, when Norwich won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Norwich's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Norwich
2
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Swansea?
From 8 meetings on record, Norwich have won 2, Swansea have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Norwich 1-1 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 67%, Swansea 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Norwich) and 49% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Swansea in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Norwich's games and 44% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norwich vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Norwich's recent games and 49% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Swansea tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Swansea in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norwich and Swansea share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich and Swansea finished level at 1-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.31 xG and Swansea 1.08 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Swansea attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 40% | Draw 31% | Swansea 29%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 50%, Swansea 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.34 PPG, Swansea 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.