Norwich 2-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norwich at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship (matchday 39). The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Norwich have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Norwich's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Norwich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Plymouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Norwich's favour (2.00 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Norwich, 1 for Plymouth and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 8.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Norwich 2–6 Plymouth — a Plymouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 8.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 56% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 54% | Plymouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.96 xG and Plymouth 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.381 / defence 0.816 | Plymouth attack 0.762 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.205. Norwich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.381 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Norwich's last 84 games and Plymouth's last 38.
Result probabilities: Norwich 66% | Draw 21% | Plymouth 13%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 1.52 | Draw 4.84 | Plymouth 7.45. The model has a clear lean to Norwich (66%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Norwich 50% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 39 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 66% | Draw 21% | Plymouth 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Norwich 1.96 / Plymouth 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.381 / def 0.816 | Plymouth attack 0.762 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Norwich (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Plymouth xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Norwich vs Plymouth kick off?
Norwich vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Plymouth?
Norwich 2 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Norwich vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Plymouth part of?
Norwich vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 66% chance of winning, Plymouth a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Norwich and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Norwich vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Norwich's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.76x) against Norwich's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Norwich's last 84 games and Plymouth's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.84
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.71
0.75
Plymouth xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
52.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Norwich and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Norwich and 0.75 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 84 outings, Norwich have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 35W 18D 31L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 41W 19D 24L from 84 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Norwich against 1.69 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Norwich have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 42 home games (21W 7D 14L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 13W 14D 15L from their last 42 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norwich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.62 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Norwich (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Norwich
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Norwich and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 35W 18D 31L in their last 84 games (1.46 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 41W 19D 24L in their last 84 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Plymouth away?
Norwich's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.67 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Norwich or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norwich have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Plymouth in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Norwich and Plymouth, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Norwich won Norwich 6-1 Plymouth on 26 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norwich
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Norwich have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Plymouth 2-1 Norwich.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 48%, Plymouth 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Norwich) and 55% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Norwich keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Norwich have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Norwich vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Norwich and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Norwich's recent matches and 60% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Norwich and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Norwich's recent games and 55% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norwich and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Norwich's recent matches and 69% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Norwich edge out Plymouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norwich beat Plymouth 2-1 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 1.96 xG and Plymouth 0.75 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 1.38 / defence 0.82 against Plymouth attack 0.76 / defence 1.05, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 66% | Draw 21% | Plymouth 13%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 54%, Plymouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 1.46 PPG, Plymouth 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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