Norwich vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Norwich at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norwich vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich in Championship, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norwich have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norwich at Carrow Road this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Norwich against 0.60 for Derby. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Norwich register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Derby in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Norwich lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Norwich winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Norwich half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Norwich 61% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 53% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 1.79 xG and Derby 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 1.018 / defence 1.134 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Norwich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Norwich games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 48% | Draw 23% | Derby 29%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 3.45. Norwich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norwich at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norwich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Norwich 70% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 48% | Draw 23% | Derby 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Norwich 1.79 / Derby 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 1.018 / def 1.134 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Norwich (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Derby xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Derby kick off?
Norwich vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 January 2027 at Carrow Road.
Where is Norwich vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Derby part of?
Norwich vs Derby is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 48% chance of winning, Derby a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Norwich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Norwich and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): Norwich 2W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Norwich and Derby in?
Norwich (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Norwich's attack at 1.02x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Norwich's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norwich Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.33
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Norwich xG
Total xG
3.14
1.35
Derby xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
5%
20.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Norwich and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Norwich and 1.35 for Derby, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Norwich's recent record stands at 22W 8D 27L from 57 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 24L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Norwich against 1.32 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 11W 3D 14L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 4D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Norwich are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norwich have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Derby in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Derby in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 22W 8D 27L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 1.29 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norwich have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norwich
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Norwich have won 2, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Norwich 2-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Derby?
Norwich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Norwich see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 57%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Norwich) and 64% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Norwich have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Norwich's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norwich vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Norwich's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Norwich and Derby tend to score early?
Norwich have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.