Millwall 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Millwall at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Plymouth travel to The Den to take on Millwall in Championship (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Millwall — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Millwall at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Plymouth stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Plymouth away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Millwall have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Millwall have won 1, Plymouth 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Millwall 2–0 Plymouth — a Millwall win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Plymouth trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 41% versus Plymouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 39% | Plymouth 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Millwall surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.32 xG and Plymouth 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.848 / defence 1.008 | Plymouth attack 0.737 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.149. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Millwall's last 90 games and Plymouth's last 44.
Result probabilities: Millwall 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.11 | Draw 3.53 | Plymouth 4.13. Millwall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Millwall's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Millwall 40% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Millwall 1.32 / Plymouth 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.848 / def 1.008 | Plymouth attack 0.737 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Millwall (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Plymouth xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Millwall vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Millwall vs Plymouth kick off?
Millwall vs Plymouth kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Plymouth?
Millwall 1 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Millwall vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Plymouth part of?
Millwall vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 47% chance of winning, Plymouth a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Millwall and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Millwall vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Millwall's attack rating (0.85) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Millwall's last 90 games and Plymouth's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.53
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.17
0.85
Plymouth xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Millwall vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Millwall and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Millwall and 0.85 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall come into this having played 90 games, going 33W 22D 35L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.66 PPG from 90 outings (43W 20D 27L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.34 PPG, Plymouth on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Millwall's home form reads 19W 11D 15L across their last 45 home games, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 45 away games (14W 14D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.56 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Millwall (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Millwall
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Millwall vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Millwall and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 33W 22D 35L in their last 90 games (1.34 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 43W 20D 27L in their last 90 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Plymouth away?
Millwall's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.51 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Millwall or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Plymouth in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 12 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2025, when Plymouth won Plymouth 5-1 Millwall.
Millwall's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Millwall
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Millwall vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Millwall have won 3, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 February 2025: Plymouth 5-1 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Plymouth?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 40%, Plymouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Millwall) and 56% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Millwall have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Millwall vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Millwall and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Millwall's recent matches and 58% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Millwall and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Millwall's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Millwall's recent matches and 71% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Millwall edge out Plymouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Plymouth 1-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.32 xG and Plymouth 0.85 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Plymouth attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 24%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 39%, Plymouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.34 PPG, Plymouth 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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