Millwall 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Millwall at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Millwall vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Derby travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Championship appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Millwall are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 62% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Millwall 31% | Derby 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 0.93 xG and Derby 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.836 / defence 1.021 | Derby attack 0.587 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.140. Data: 16 Millwall games / 16 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 39% | Draw 36% | Derby 25%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Derby 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Derby's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.62 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 62% | Derby 38%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 39% | Draw 36% | Derby 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Millwall 0.93 / Derby 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.836 / def 1.021 | Derby attack 0.587 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Millwall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Derby xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Derby part of?
Millwall vs Derby is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 39% chance of winning, Derby a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Millwall and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Millwall's attack at 0.84x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
39%
2.54
36%
2.81
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Millwall xG
Total xG
1.62
0.68
Derby xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.28
70%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 13.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Millwall and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Millwall and 0.68 for Derby, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall's recent record stands at 6W 6D 4L from 16 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 5L across 16 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Millwall by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 4W 2D 2L from 8 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.75 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Millwall have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Derby in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while Derby have gone 3W 8D 5L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Derby away?
Millwall's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.75 PPG; Derby away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Millwall or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Millwall's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Millwall
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 3, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 62%, Derby 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Millwall and 25% for Derby.
On the defensive side: Derby in 38%; Derby in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Millwall's recent matches and 38% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Millwall's recent games and 25% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Millwall and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall and Derby finished level at 1-1 at The Den, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 0.93 xG and Derby 0.68 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against Derby attack 0.59 / defence 1.05, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 39% | Draw 36% | Derby 25%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 31%, Derby 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Millwall arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.