Millwall vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Millwall (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Millwall face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Derby travel to The Den to take on Millwall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Millwall — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Millwall are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Millwall have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Derby have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Millwall winning.
The historical record gives Millwall a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Millwall trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Derby trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 47% versus Derby 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 49% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.93 xG and Derby 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 1.099 / defence 0.988 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Millwall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Millwall games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 55% | Draw 22% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Derby 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Millwall (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Millwall 30% | Derby 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 55% | Draw 22% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Millwall 1.93 / Derby 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 1.099 / def 0.988 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Millwall (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Derby xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Derby kick off?
Millwall vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at The Den.
Where is Millwall vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Derby part of?
Millwall vs Derby is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 55% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Millwall and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
Record (6 meetings): Millwall 3W | Draws 3 | Derby 0W.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Millwall's attack at 1.10x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Millwall's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.52
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Millwall xG
Total xG
3.11
1.18
Derby xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
3%
29.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Millwall and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Millwall and 1.18 for Derby, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Millwall's recent record stands at 27W 15D 15L from 57 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 24L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Millwall on 1.68 PPG, Derby on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 15W 5D 8L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 4D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Millwall are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby in 63%.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Derby in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 27W 15D 15L in their last 57 games (1.68 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Derby away?
Millwall's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.79 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Millwall or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Derby in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Millwall's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Millwall
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Millwall have won 3, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Derby?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 39%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Millwall and 64% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Millwall's recent matches and 64% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Millwall's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Millwall and Derby tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.