Millwall 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Birmingham at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Millwall face Birmingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Den plays host to Millwall versus Birmingham in Championship (matchday 37). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Millwall have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Millwall at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Birmingham (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Birmingham's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Millwall, 1 for Birmingham and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Millwall 1–1 Birmingham — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Millwall — key trading statistics (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Birmingham — key trading statistics (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 42% versus Birmingham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 41% | Birmingham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.17 xG and Birmingham 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.684 / defence 1.181 | Birmingham attack 0.801 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.239. Millwall's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Birmingham's defence rating of 1.248 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Millwall's projected output up. Data: built from Millwall's last 82 games and Birmingham's last 81.
Result probabilities: Millwall 36% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.79 | Draw 3.56 | Birmingham 2.77. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Millwall 36% and Birmingham 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Millwall 40% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 37 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 36% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Millwall 1.17 / Birmingham 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.684 / def 1.181 | Birmingham attack 0.801 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Millwall and Birmingham level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Birmingham xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Millwall vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Millwall vs Birmingham kick off?
Millwall vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Birmingham?
Millwall 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Millwall vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Birmingham part of?
Millwall vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 36% chance of winning, Birmingham a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Millwall and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Millwall vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Millwall's attack rating (0.68) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.80x) against Millwall's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Millwall's last 82 games and Birmingham's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.56
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Millwall xG
Total xG
2.34
1.17
Birmingham xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Millwall vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Millwall and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Millwall and 1.17 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Millwall's recent record stands at 28W 21D 32L from 81 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 37L across 81 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Millwall against 1.14 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 15W 10D 15L from their last 40 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 10W 7D 23L across their last 40 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Millwall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Millwall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.10 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Millwall (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Millwall
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Millwall vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Millwall and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 28W 21D 32L in their last 81 games (1.30 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 24W 20D 37L in their last 81 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Birmingham away?
Millwall's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.38 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Millwall or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Birmingham in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Millwall and Birmingham, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Birmingham won Birmingham 4-0 Millwall on 4 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Millwall
3
Draws
3
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Millwall vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Birmingham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Millwall have won 3, Birmingham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Birmingham 3-0 Millwall.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 40%, Birmingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Millwall) and 45% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Millwall have failed to score in 35% of games; Birmingham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Millwall vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Millwall and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Millwall's recent matches and 50% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Millwall and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Millwall's recent games and 45% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Millwall's recent matches and 80% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Millwall defy the odds to beat Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Birmingham 1-0 at The Den, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.17 xG and Birmingham 1.17 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.68 / defence 1.18 against Birmingham attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 36% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 41%, Birmingham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Birmingham's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.30 PPG, Birmingham 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.98 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 37
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →