Leeds 0-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leeds at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leeds vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leeds host Burnley at Elland Road in Championship, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Leeds — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Leeds have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Elland Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Leeds) versus 1.20 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Leeds have won 1, Burnley 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2022, ended 3–1 with Leeds winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leeds in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Burnley in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 40% versus Burnley 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | Burnley 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.76 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.184 / defence 0.972 | Burnley attack 1.017 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.136. Data: 50 Leeds games / 4 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 52% | Draw 23% | Burnley 24%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Burnley 4.17. Leeds hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leeds offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Leeds 30% | Burnley 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 52% | Draw 23% | Burnley 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Leeds 1.76 / Burnley 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.184 / def 0.972 | Burnley attack 1.017 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Leeds (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Burnley xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Burnley kick off?
Leeds vs Burnley kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Burnley?
Leeds 0 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Leeds vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Burnley part of?
Leeds vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 52% chance of winning, Burnley a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Leeds and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Leeds 1W | Draws 1 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Leeds and Burnley in?
Leeds (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Burnley (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leeds's attack rating (1.18) and Burnley's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.26
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.89
1.12
Burnley xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
24.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Leeds and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Leeds and 1.12 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Leeds have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 8D 9L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Leeds, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley's form line: 7W 10D 25L from 42 games, 0.74 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Leeds are the form team by 1.24 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leeds have posted 2.29 PPG from 21 outings (15W 3D 3L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.21 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 62%.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Burnley in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 25W 8D 9L in their last 42 games (1.98 PPG), while Burnley have gone 7W 10D 25L in their last 42 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Burnley away?
Leeds's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.29 PPG; Burnley away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Leeds or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Burnley in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leeds's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leeds
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Leeds 3-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 48%, Burnley 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Leeds and 62% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Leeds's games and 67% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leeds vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Leeds's matches and 62% of Burnley's.
Do Leeds and Burnley tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Burnley in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Leeds 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Leeds 0-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 1.76 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Leeds fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 52% | Draw 23% | Burnley 24%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Burnley 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.