Ipswich 2-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ipswich at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Birmingham travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ipswich at Portman Road this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ipswich are significantly better at Portman Road than their overall form suggests.
Birmingham — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Birmingham's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ipswich carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ipswich, 0 for Birmingham and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Birmingham trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 59% versus Birmingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 54% | Birmingham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.68 xG and Birmingham 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.115 / defence 0.748 | Birmingham attack 0.690 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.206. Ipswich's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Ipswich games / 40 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 12%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Birmingham 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 50% | Birmingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Ipswich 1.68 / Birmingham 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.115 / def 0.748 | Birmingham attack 0.690 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Birmingham xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Birmingham kick off?
Ipswich vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Ipswich 2 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Ipswich vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Birmingham part of?
Ipswich vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 62% chance of winning, Birmingham a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ipswich and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Birmingham?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 1W | Draws 2 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Ipswich and Birmingham in?
Ipswich (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Birmingham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
62%
1.61
25%
3.93
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.30
0.62
Birmingham xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
2%
42.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.62 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Ipswich have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 23W 22D 31L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 40W 19D 17L from 76 games, 1.83 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Birmingham are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ipswich.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ipswich have posted 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (13W 11D 14L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 16W 8D 14L from 38 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.47 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Birmingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 23W 22D 31L in their last 76 games (1.20 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 40W 19D 17L in their last 76 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.32 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Birmingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Birmingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ipswich
2
Draws
0
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 2, Birmingham have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Ipswich 2-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Birmingham?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 53%, Birmingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ipswich) and 45% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ipswich's recent matches and 50% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ipswich's recent games and 45% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Birmingham tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Birmingham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Birmingham 2-1 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.68 xG and Birmingham 0.62 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Birmingham attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 62% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 12%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 54%, Birmingham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Ipswich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.