Hull City 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Sunderland meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hull City at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sunderland away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Hull City, 1.40 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2023, ended Hull City 4–4 Sunderland — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Sunderland 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 48% | Sunderland 56%). Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.31 xG and Sunderland 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.091 / defence 0.889 | Sunderland attack 0.823 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.201. Data: built from Hull City's last 69 games and Sunderland's last 69.
Result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 25%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.18 | Draw 3.39 | Sunderland 4.07. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hull City's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 24 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Hull City 1.31 / Sunderland 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.091 / def 0.889 | Sunderland attack 0.823 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sunderland xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Sunderland kick off?
Hull City vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Hull City 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Hull City vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sunderland part of?
Hull City vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 46% chance of winning, Sunderland a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hull City and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Hull City vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.09x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.82x) against Hull City's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 69 games and Sunderland's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.39
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
Sunderland xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hull City and 0.88 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 69 games, going 24W 22D 23L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.46 PPG from 69 outings (28W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Hull City against 1.46 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 14W 10D 10L across their last 34 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 34 away games (13W 9D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.42 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 24W 22D 23L in their last 69 games (1.36 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 28W 17D 24L in their last 69 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sunderland away?
Hull City's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.53 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 53%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hull City) and 47% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%; Sunderland in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Hull City's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hull City's recent games and 47% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hull City's recent matches and 76% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.31 xG and Sunderland 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against Sunderland attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 46% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 25%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 48%, Sunderland 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.36 PPG, Sunderland 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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