Hull City 1-2 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Stoke City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stoke City travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City in Championship (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hull City — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hull City's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stoke City stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stoke City's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Hull City have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Hull City have won 2, Stoke City 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Hull City 3–1 Stoke City — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Stoke City in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 59% versus Stoke City 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 51% | Stoke City 40%). Note also that Stoke City surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.851 / defence 1.230 | Stoke City attack 0.785 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.034. Stoke City's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Hull City's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stoke City's projected output up. Data: built from Hull City's last 75 games and Stoke City's last 75.
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.49 | Draw 3.29 | Stoke City 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hull City 70% (last 10 home games) | Stoke City 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, matchday 30 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Hull City 1.21 / Stoke City 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.851 / def 1.230 | Stoke City attack 0.785 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Stoke City xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Stoke City FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Stoke City kick off?
Hull City vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Stoke City?
Hull City 1 - 2 Stoke City.
Where is Hull City vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Stoke City part of?
Hull City vs Stoke City is a Championship fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Stoke City a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hull City and Stoke City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Hull City vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 75 games and Stoke City's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.29
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.21
1.00
Stoke City xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Stoke City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hull City and 1.00 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 26W 21D 28L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Stoke City's form line: 21W 22D 32L from 75 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.32 PPG, Stoke City on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 37 home games (9W 15D 13L).
On the road, Stoke City have gone 9W 9D 19L from their last 37 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Stoke City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Stoke City Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 26W 21D 28L in their last 75 games (1.32 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 21W 22D 32L in their last 75 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Stoke City away?
Hull City's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.14 PPG; Stoke City away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Hull City or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 1 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Sep 2022, when Stoke City won Hull City 0-3 Stoke City.
Hull City's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Stoke City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Stoke City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 3, Stoke City have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Stoke City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2026: Hull City 0-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, Stoke City 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 38% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 27% of games; Stoke City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Stoke City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Stoke City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Stoke City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 38% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Stoke City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hull City's recent matches and 70% of Stoke City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.00 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stoke City outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Stoke City attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Stoke City 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Stoke City 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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