Hull City 0-3 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Hull City take on QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and QPR meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Championship outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
QPR (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Championship outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Hull City's favour (3.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Hull City register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, QPR in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.23 xG and QPR 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | QPR attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.320. Data: 1 Hull City games / 1 QPR games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 35% | QPR 34%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | QPR 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 35% | QPR 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Hull City 1.23 / QPR 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | QPR attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.29
QPR xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs QPR kick off?
Hull City vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs QPR?
Hull City 0 - 3 QPR.
Where is Hull City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs QPR part of?
Hull City vs QPR is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 31% chance of winning, QPR a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hull City and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and QPR in?
Hull City (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. QPR (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.98) and QPR's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.85x) against Hull City's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.19
35%
2.90
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
QPR xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hull City and 1.29 for QPR, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hull City by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Hull City's scoring rate against QPR's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; QPR in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
QPR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and QPR in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while QPR have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
QPR have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
6
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, QPR have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Hull City 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hull City's games and 100% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Hull City's recent games and 0% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and QPR tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, QPR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant QPR run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Hull City 0-3 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.23 xG and QPR 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. QPR outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against QPR attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 31% | Draw 35% | QPR 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 100%, QPR 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with QPR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hull City managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.