Hull City 1-3 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Middlesbrough make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Middlesbrough have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Hull City against 1.10 for Middlesbrough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Hull City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Middlesbrough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 36% versus Middlesbrough 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 38% | Middlesbrough 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.27 xG and Middlesbrough 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.787 / defence 1.309 | Middlesbrough attack 1.055 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.118. Hull City's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Middlesbrough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Hull City games / 63 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 44%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Middlesbrough 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Middlesbrough 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 31% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hull City 1.27 / Middlesbrough 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.787 / def 1.309 | Middlesbrough attack 1.055 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Middlesbrough xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Hull City vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Hull City 1 - 3 Middlesbrough.
Where is Hull City vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Middlesbrough part of?
Hull City vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 31% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hull City and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Middlesbrough?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 0W.
What form are Hull City and Middlesbrough in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Middlesbrough (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.79x the league average against Middlesbrough's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (1.05x) against Hull City's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
31%
3.19
25%
4.01
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.81
1.54
Middlesbrough xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Hull City and 1.54 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 11D 32L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.38 PPG from 63 outings (24W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Hull City against 1.38 for Middlesbrough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 11W 4D 16L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 0.97 points per game from 31 outings (7W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Middlesbrough's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.25 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Middlesbrough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 11D 32L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 24W 15D 24L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Middlesbrough away?
Hull City's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.19 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Hull City or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 1-4 on 5 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hull City
1
Draws
5
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Middlesbrough?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 4, Middlesbrough have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 39%, Middlesbrough 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hull City) and 45% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 45% of games; Middlesbrough in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hull City's recent matches and 52% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hull City's recent games and 45% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Middlesbrough cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Hull City 1-3 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.27 xG and Middlesbrough 1.54 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Middlesbrough outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.79 / defence 1.31 against Middlesbrough attack 1.05 / defence 1.22, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 31% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 44%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 38%, Middlesbrough 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.13 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.