Derby 1-2 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Sheffield Wednesday.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sheffield Wednesday at Pride Park Stadium in Championship (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Derby — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Derby at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Derby are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Sheffield Wednesday have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sheffield Wednesday's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.10 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Sheffield Wednesday and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Derby 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday — a Sheffield Wednesday win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Sheffield Wednesday 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Sheffield Wednesday 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.18 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.909 / defence 1.122 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.969 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.051. Data: built from Derby's last 17 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 63.
Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 34%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.83 | Draw 3.23 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 40% (last 10 home games) | Sheffield Wednesday 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: Championship, matchday 18 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Derby 1.18 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.909 / def 1.122 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.969 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Derby (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sheffield Wednesday xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday FAQs
What time does Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Derby 1 - 2 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Championship fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derby and Sheffield Wednesday will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.91) and Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 17 games and Sheffield Wednesday's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.23
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Derby xG
Total xG
2.32
1.14
Sheffield Wednesday xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
11%
8.86
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Derby and 1.14 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Derby have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 33W 13D 17L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 21W 12D 30L from 63 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sheffield Wednesday.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 2.03 PPG from their last 31 home games (19W 6D 6L).
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 10W 2D 19L from their last 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.02 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Sheffield Wednesday (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 33W 13D 17L in their last 63 games (1.78 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 21W 12D 30L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Derby's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.03 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Derby or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Dec 2025, when Derby won Sheffield Wednesday 0-3 Derby.
Derby's record when hosting Sheffield Wednesday specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 2, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Derby 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 52%, Sheffield Wednesday 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 48% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Sheffield Wednesday matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Derby's recent matches and 26% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Sheffield Wednesday matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sheffield Wednesday matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Derby's recent matches and 61% of Sheffield Wednesday's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sheffield Wednesday defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.18 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.14 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 35% | Draw 31% | Sheffield Wednesday 34%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sheffield Wednesday win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Sheffield Wednesday 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Wednesday winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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